Australia's CPI came in at 4.6% for the year to March 2026, published by the ABS yesterday. Core inflation (trimmed mean) held flat at 3.3%. The data lands six days before the RBA board meets on May 5, and all four major banks are now forecasting a 25bp hike to 4.35%.
What the Numbers Actually Say
The headline 4.6% sounds alarming, but the detail matters. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred guide, came in at 3.3%, unchanged from February. That flatness is notable.
The headline spike is being driven by housing (up 6.5% annually) and energy. Electricity is 25.4% higher than a year ago, largely because the Commonwealth and State government rebates that held costs down through 2025 are no longer in place. Real cost pressure, but the RBA knows it is largely a one-time unwind rather than structural inflation.
What the RBA Is Likely to Do on May 5
ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac are all forecasting a 25bp hike, taking the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. Markets are pricing roughly a 62% probability of that outcome.
The flat trimmed mean gives the Board some room to pause if they choose. But with the headline running at 4.6% and two hikes already behind us this year, a third looks more likely than not. If you are managing a large loan, plan for it.
Three Things to Do Before May 5
A third 25bp hike adds roughly $80 to $100 per month on a $500k loan balance, depending on your lender's pass-through. For doctors carrying $1m or more in mortgage debt, that compounds quickly.
- Call your lender about retention pricing. Many banks are offering rate discounts to existing customers who simply ask. A 0.20% reduction can offset a full RBA hike on most balances.
- Review your cash flow buffer. If your income includes locum shifts or irregular billing cycles, stress-test your repayments at 4.60%.
- Consider a partial fixed split. Fixing part of the loan puts a ceiling on those repayments while keeping flexibility on the variable portion.
Refinancing Is Worth Checking Too
When rates move, refinancing thresholds shift. Doctors with access to professional lending products, including LMI-waived loans and high LVR options, may find the gap between their current rate and what a new lender will offer has widened.
For a full breakdown of what lenders offer medical professionals, the Voyage doctor home loans guide covers what to look for and what you are likely to qualify for.
Key Takeaways
- CPI rose 4.6% in the year to March 2026, the highest since late 2023
- Core (trimmed mean) inflation held flat at 3.3%, giving the RBA some room
- All four major banks are forecasting a 25bp hike to 4.35% on May 5
- A third hike this year adds meaningful repayment pressure on large loan balances
- Call your lender now, review your buffer, and check your refinancing options before the decision lands
Voyage Financial works with doctors across Australia on professional lending. If you want a quick read on your position before May 5, book a call.
General Advice Warning: The information in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or goals. It was accurate at the time of publication and may not reflect current market conditions or legislation. This article should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional financial, legal, or tax advice. Always seek guidance from a licensed adviser before making financial decisions. Where information from third-party sources is referenced, it has been sourced from reputable outlets in good faith, but Voyage Financial cannot guarantee its ongoing accuracy.
